Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aerostar Bacau vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
9/16/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aerostar Bacau54%
×Draw22%
CS Luceafarul Oradea24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
1.96
CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.25

Aerostar Bacau creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
76%
Aerostar Bacau or CS Luceafarul Oradea
78%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
46%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
31%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
86%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
58%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
31%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
71%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
36%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
69%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.96

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
54%
level
22%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
24%

Aerostar Bacau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Aerostar Bacau 3–1 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Aerostar Bacau beat CS Luceafarul Oradea 3-1 in Liga II on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău).