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CS Luceafarul Oradea vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
8/25/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 4Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea69%
×Draw19%
ACS Poli Timisoara12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.08
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.71

CS Luceafarul Oradea creates 193% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.16
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Luceafarul Oradea ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CS Luceafarul Oradea or draw
88%
CS Luceafarul Oradea or ACS Poli Timisoara
81%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
31%

Winning margin

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
44%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
87%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
61%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
34%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
51%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
16%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
86%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Luceafarul Oradea at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 2.16 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
69%
level
19%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
12%

CS Luceafarul Oradea at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "CS Luceafarul Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Luceafarul Oradea vs ACS Poli Timisoara

CS Luceafarul Oradea beat ACS Poli Timisoara 4-2 in Liga II on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin).