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ACS Poli Timisoara vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
3/2/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 23Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara48%
×Draw24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.65
CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.19

ACS Poli Timisoara creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.05
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.53
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw
72%
ACS Poli Timisoara or CS Luceafarul Oradea
76%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
52%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
25%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
81%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
49%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
23%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
70%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
33%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
64%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.65

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
48%
level
24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
28%

ACS Poli Timisoara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ACS Poli Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Poli Timisoara 1–1 CS Luceafarul Oradea

ACS Poli Timisoara and CS Luceafarul Oradea drew 1-1 in Liga II on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara).