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CS Herediano vs CF Pachuca — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

CS Herediano
CS Herediano
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
CF Pachuca
CF Pachucaadvanced
4/4/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsEstadio Nacional de Costa Rica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CS Herediano20%
×Draw27%
CF Pachuca54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Herediano
0.77
CF Pachuca
1.46

CF Pachuca creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

CS Herediano
1.29
CF Pachuca
1.50

allows per match

CS Herediano
1.43
CF Pachuca
0.25

finishing

CS Herediano+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Herediano ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CS Herediano or draw
46%
CS Herediano or CF Pachuca
73%
Draw or CF Pachuca
80%

Winning margin

CS Herediano wins by 2+
6%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

CS Herediano 1+ goals
54%
CS Herediano 2+ goals
18%
CS Herediano 3+ goals
4%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
77%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
43%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CS Herediano (draw refunded)
27%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Herediano at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Herediano attack 1.29 + CF Pachuca defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.77

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + CS Herediano defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CS Herediano scores more
20%
level
27%
CF Pachuca scores more
54%

CF Pachuca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: CS Herediano 0–5 CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat CS Herediano 5-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica in San José.