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CF Pachuca vs CS Herediano — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachucaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CS Herediano
CS Herediano
S. Rondón 59'
B. González 47'
E. Rubio 62' (pen)
4/11/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsEstadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CF Pachuca73%
×Draw16%
CS Herediano12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
2.62
CS Herediano
0.95

CF Pachuca creates 176% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
2.80
CS Herediano
1.29

allows per match

CF Pachuca
0.60
CS Herediano
2.43

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
CS Herediano+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

CS Herediano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
88%
CF Pachuca or CS Herediano
84%
Draw or CS Herediano
27%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
51%
CS Herediano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
93%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
73%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
48%
CS Herediano 1+ goals
61%
CS Herediano 2+ goals
25%
CS Herediano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
86%
CS Herediano (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

CS Herediano away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 2.80 + CS Herediano defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.62

CS Herediano attack 1.29 + CF Pachuca defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
73%
level
16%
CS Herediano scores more
12%

CF Pachuca at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. LópezCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
Everardo Rubio
46'
J. López← I. Luna
47'
B. González↳ J. López
52'
Andy Rojas
54'
Gerson Torres
54'
Allan Cruz
59'
S. Rondón↳ J. López
61'
A. Bautista← J. López
62'
E. RubioPenalty
65'
Bryan González
66'
D. Araya← A. Garza
71'
Miguel RodriguezPenalty cancelled
75'
J. Ruiz← Allan Cruz
75'
D. Vega← G. Torres
76'
Andres Arroyo
79'
A. Domínguez← O. Idrissi
79'
R. de la Rosa← S. Rondón
80'
Miguel Rodriguez
80'
Fernán Faerron
81'
P. Pedraza← N. Deossa
85'
Luís Rodríguez
86'
F. Rodríguez← A. Rojas
86'
Y. Ruiz← E. Aguilar

Possession

53%CF

Shots

11CF

Pass accuracy

52%CF

Statistics

CFCS
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots8
7Corners2
17Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots8
5On Target4
5Off Target2
1Blocked2
9Inside Box3
2Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
342Total Passes320
289Accurate Passes257
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls14
4Yellow Cards5
0Offsides1

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs CS Herediano

CF Pachuca beat CS Herediano 2-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 11, 2024.

Goals: B. González (47'), S. Rondón (59'), E. Rubio (62' pen).

CF Pachuca controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.