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CS Constantine vs Bordj BOU Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
9/12/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui (Constantine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CS Constantine60%
×Draw25%
Bordj BOU Arreridj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
1.56
Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.64

CS Constantine creates 144% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 45 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.62

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

Bordj BOU Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
85%
CS Constantine or Bordj BOU Arreridj
75%
Draw or Bordj BOU Arreridj
40%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
32%
Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
79%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
46%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
21%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
47%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
14%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
80%
Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 0.53 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CS Constantine scores more
60%
level
25%
Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
15%

CS Constantine at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: CS Constantine 2–2 Bordj BOU Arreridj

CS Constantine and Bordj BOU Arreridj drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui (Constantine).