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Bordj BOU Arreridj vs CS Constantine — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CS Constantine
CS Constantine
2/22/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj38%
×Draw30%
CS Constantine32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.10
CS Constantine
1.00

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 124 away

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.09
CS Constantine
0.96

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.04
CS Constantine
1.12

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par
CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

CS Constantine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw
68%
Bordj BOU Arreridj or CS Constantine
70%
Draw or CS Constantine
62%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
15%
CS Constantine wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
67%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
30%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
10%
CS Constantine 1+ goals
63%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
26%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
54%
CS Constantine (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.09 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
38%
level
30%
CS Constantine scores more
32%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bordj BOU Arreridj vs CS Constantine

CS Constantine beat Bordj BOU Arreridj 3-1 in Ligue 1 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).