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CS Balotesti vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
11/3/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti25%
×Draw26%
Chindia Targoviste48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Balotesti
0.97
Chindia Targoviste
1.46

Chindia Targoviste creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

CS Balotesti
0.89
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

CS Balotesti
1.68
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw
52%
CS Balotesti or Chindia Targoviste
74%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
75%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+
9%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals
62%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
25%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
7%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
77%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
43%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
34%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Balotesti scores more
25%
level
26%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
48%

Chindia Targoviste at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Balotesti vs Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat CS Balotesti 4-1 in Liga II on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti).