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Chindia Targoviste vs CS Balotesti — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
6 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
5/11/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 34Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chindia Targoviste71%
×Draw17%
CS Balotesti12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
2.44
CS Balotesti
0.88

Chindia Targoviste creates 177% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
CS Balotesti
0.74

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
CS Balotesti
2.95

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

CS Balotesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
88%
Chindia Targoviste or CS Balotesti
83%
Draw or CS Balotesti
29%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
49%
CS Balotesti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
91%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
70%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
43%
CS Balotesti 1+ goals
59%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
22%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
86%
CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.44

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
71%
level
17%
CS Balotesti scores more
12%

Chindia Targoviste at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chindia Targoviste 6 – 0 CS Balotesti

Chindia Targoviste beat CS Balotesti 6-0 in Liga II on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).