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CS Balotesti vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
11/28/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti43%
×Draw25%
Aerostar Bacau32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Balotesti
1.56
Aerostar Bacau
1.32

CS Balotesti creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

CS Balotesti
0.89
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

CS Balotesti
1.68
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw
68%
CS Balotesti or Aerostar Bacau
75%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
57%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+
21%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals
79%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
46%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
21%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
73%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
38%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
57%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CS Balotesti scores more
43%
level
25%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
32%

CS Balotesti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CS Balotesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Balotesti vs Aerostar Bacau

CS Balotesti and Aerostar Bacau drew 1-1 in Liga II on November 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti).