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Aerostar Bacau vs CS Balotesti — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
7 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
5/31/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 38Stadionul Aerostar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aerostar Bacau62%
×Draw19%
CS Balotesti19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
2.31
CS Balotesti
1.20

Aerostar Bacau creates 93% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
CS Balotesti
0.74

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
CS Balotesti
2.95

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

CS Balotesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
81%
Aerostar Bacau or CS Balotesti
81%
Draw or CS Balotesti
38%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
40%
CS Balotesti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
90%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
67%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
40%
CS Balotesti 1+ goals
70%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
34%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
77%
CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.31

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
62%
level
19%
CS Balotesti scores more
19%

Aerostar Bacau at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Aerostar Bacau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Aerostar Bacau 7–2 CS Balotesti

Aerostar Bacau beat CS Balotesti 7-2 in Liga II on May 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar.