Crystal Palace W 0–7 Chelsea W: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace W

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea W

9/27/2024

FA WSL · Round 2Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Crystal Palace W8%

×Draw14%

Chelsea W79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal Palace WExpected goals in this matchChelsea W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

2.76

Crystal Palace W

0.76

Chelsea W

2.76

Chelsea W creates 263% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 83 away

0.82

creates per match

2.71

2.82

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Crystal Palace W

0.82

Chelsea W

2.71

allows per match

Crystal Palace W

2.82

Chelsea W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

Chelsea W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–311%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw

21%

Crystal Palace W or Chelsea W

86%

Draw or Chelsea W

92%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

2%

Chelsea W wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

53%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

18%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

4%

Chelsea W 1+ goals

94%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

76%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

9%

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Chelsea W away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 0.82 + Chelsea W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Chelsea W attack 2.71 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more

8%

level

14%

Chelsea W scores more

79%

Chelsea W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff