Chelsea W 5–0 Crystal Palace W: Result & Stats

Chelsea W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Crystal Palace W

1/17/2026

FA Women's Cup · Round 4Kingsmeadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chelsea W85%

×Draw11%

Crystal Palace W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea WExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

0.47

Chelsea W

2.78

Crystal Palace W

0.47

Chelsea W creates 491% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

3.06

creates per match

0.63

0.31

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Chelsea W

3.06

Crystal Palace W

0.63

allows per match

Chelsea W

0.31

Crystal Palace W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea W ↓

Crystal Palace W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Chelsea W or draw

96%

Chelsea W or Crystal Palace W

89%

Draw or Crystal Palace W

15%

Winning margin

Chelsea W wins by 2+

65%

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Chelsea W 1+ goals

94%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

76%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

51%

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

37%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

8%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

95%

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea W at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.31 · 16 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea W attack 3.06 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.78

Crystal Palace W attack 0.63 + Chelsea W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Chelsea W scores more

85%

level

11%

Crystal Palace W scores more

4%

Chelsea W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff