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Crystal Palace W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
3/16/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 16VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Crystal Palace W25%
×Draw21%
Aston Villa W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace W
1.32
Aston Villa W
2.04

Aston Villa W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 66 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace W
0.82
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

Crystal Palace W
2.82
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw
46%
Crystal Palace W or Aston Villa W
79%
Draw or Aston Villa W
75%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
10%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
73%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
38%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
15%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
87%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
60%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
31%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 0.82 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more
25%
level
21%
Aston Villa W scores more
54%

Aston Villa W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crystal Palace W vs Aston Villa W

Crystal Palace W beat Aston Villa W 3-1 in FA WSL on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.