Aston Villa W 3–2 Crystal Palace W: Result & Stats

Aston Villa W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Crystal Palace W

11/17/2024

FA WSL · Round 8Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Aston Villa W51%

×Draw21%

Crystal Palace W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston Villa WExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.55

Aston Villa W

2.13

Crystal Palace W

1.55

Aston Villa W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

2.11

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

Aston Villa W

1.18

Crystal Palace W

1.00

allows per match

Aston Villa W

2.11

Crystal Palace W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Crystal Palace W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw

72%

Aston Villa W or Crystal Palace W

79%

Draw or Crystal Palace W

49%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

30%

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

88%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

63%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

35%

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

79%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

46%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

64%

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 1.18 + Crystal Palace W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.13

Crystal Palace W attack 1.00 + Aston Villa W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aston Villa W scores more

51%

level

21%

Crystal Palace W scores more

28%

Aston Villa W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff