Crystal Palace 1–0 Wolves: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

E. Eze 60'

1/30/2021

Premier League · Round 21Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Crystal Palace52%

×Draw24%

Wolves24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Crystal Palace

1.67

Wolves

1.04

Crystal Palace creates 61% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

1.61

creates per match

0.82

1.27

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Wolves

1.72

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

76%

Crystal Palace or Wolves

76%

Draw or Wolves

48%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

28%

Wolves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

50%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Wolves 1+ goals

65%

Wolves 2+ goals

28%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

69%

Wolves (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Wolves attack 0.82 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

52%

level

24%

Wolves scores more

24%

Crystal Palace at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Pedro Neto

Wolves · F

7.7

Match Events

46'

J. Riedewald← J. McCarthy

60'

E. Eze↳ J. Ayew

63'

Adama Traoré← K. Hoever

68'

Vitinha← Daniel Podence

78'

Fábio Silva← João Moutinho

79'

A. Townsend← M. Batshuayi

84'

Max Kilman

85'

J. Ward← N. Clyne

90'

Wilfried Zaha

90'

Conor Coady

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalWolves

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots6

1Corners6

7Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots6

2On Target4

6Off Target1

3Blocked1

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

518Total Passes560

450Accurate Passes493

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1