Crystal Palace 0–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton

P. Højbjerg 90+2'

D. Ings 47'

9/1/2018

Premier League · Round 4Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Crystal Palace53%

×Draw23%

Southampton23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.08

Crystal Palace

1.77

Southampton

1.08

Crystal Palace creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 8 away

1.61

creates per match

0.90

1.27

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Southampton

0.90

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Southampton

1.92

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Southampton-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

77%

Crystal Palace or Southampton

77%

Draw or Southampton

47%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

30%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

83%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

53%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

26%

Southampton 1+ goals

66%

Southampton 2+ goals

29%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

70%

Southampton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Southampton defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Southampton attack 0.90 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

53%

level

23%

Southampton scores more

23%

Crystal Palace at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. McCarthy

Southampton · G

8.2

Match Events

47'

D. Ings↳ Cédric Soares

62'

C. Austin← S. Long

64'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

72'

C. Kouyaté← A. Townsend

73'

M. Targett← M. Elyounoussi

76'

76'

77'

78'

90+2'

P. Højbjerg↳ M. Targett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalSouthampton

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots19

7Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots19

6On Target6

7Off Target6

7Blocked7

13Inside Box11

7Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

432Total Passes423

338Accurate Passes326

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1