Crystal Palace 0–0 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AEK Larnaca

3/12/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Crystal Palace57%

×Draw28%

AEK Larnaca15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.56

Crystal Palace

1.39

AEK Larnaca

0.56

Crystal Palace creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

0.56

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.56

AEK Larnaca

0.56

allows per match

Crystal Palace

0.56

AEK Larnaca

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

85%

Crystal Palace or AEK Larnaca

72%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

43%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

29%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

40%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

16%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

43%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

11%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

79%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.56 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

AEK Larnaca attack 0.56 + Crystal Palace defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

57%

level

28%

AEK Larnaca scores more

15%

Crystal Palace at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Richards

Crystal Palace · D

8.7

Match Events

29'

P. Ioannou← Miramon

40'

Adam Wharton

68'

E. Cabrera← R. Bajic

68'

Y. Gurfinkel← D. Ivanovic

77'

J. Mateta← J. S. Larsen

87'

C. Kyriakou← M. Rohden

87'

R. Mudrazija← A. Garcia

88'

Y. Pino← B. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalAEK

Overview

71%Possession29%

13Total Shots2

1.98Expected Goals (xG)0.23

6Corners3

11Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots2

4On Target0

7Off Target1

2Blocked1

10Inside Box1

3Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

605Total Passes246

527Accurate Passes154

87%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

1.14Goals Prevented1.14

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2