Crystal Palace 0–1 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AEK Larnaca

R. Bajic 51'

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Crystal Palace57%

×Draw28%

AEK Larnaca15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.56

Crystal Palace

1.39

AEK Larnaca

0.56

Crystal Palace creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

0.56

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.56

AEK Larnaca

0.56

allows per match

Crystal Palace

0.56

AEK Larnaca

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

85%

Crystal Palace or AEK Larnaca

72%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

43%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

29%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

40%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

16%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

43%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

11%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

79%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.56 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

AEK Larnaca attack 0.56 + Crystal Palace defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

57%

level

28%

AEK Larnaca scores more

15%

Crystal Palace at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Guehi

Crystal Palace · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

D. Ivanovic← Y. Chacon

43'

Pere Pons

51'

R. Bajic↳ M. Rohden

60'

E. Nketiah← J. Canvot

71'

D. Kamada← J. Lerma

71'

A. Wharton← Y. Pino

79'

Jimmy Suarez← P. Pons

79'

K. Angielski← R. Bajic

86'

Jean-Philippe Mateta

87'

C. Uche← I. Sarr

87'

R. Esse← W. Hughes

88'

Edward Nketiah

90'

Marcus Rohdén

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalAEK

Overview

67%Possession33%

15Total Shots4

1.66Expected Goals (xG)0.17

8Corners2

16Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots4

1On Target2

9Off Target0

5Blocked2

12Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

587Total Passes288

508Accurate Passes193

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

0.40Goals Prevented0.40

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1