Crystal Palace U18 4–1 Aston Villa U18

Crystal Palace U18

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa U18

D. Martin 85'

J. Kyremeh 56'

B. Casey 47'

S. Williams 4'

M. Lott 68'

2/22/2025

League #696 · South - 18Crystal Palace Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Crystal Palace U1848%

×Draw21%

Aston Villa U1831%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal Palace U18Expected goals in this matchAston Villa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.67

Crystal Palace U18

2.09

Aston Villa U18

1.67

Crystal Palace U18 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 58 away

1.80

creates per match

2.34

1.00

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Crystal Palace U18

1.80

Aston Villa U18

2.34

allows per match

Crystal Palace U18

1.00

Aston Villa U18

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace U18+0.00on par

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace U18 ↓

Aston Villa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Crystal Palace U18 or draw

69%

Crystal Palace U18 or Aston Villa U18

79%

Draw or Aston Villa U18

52%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace U18 wins by 2+

27%

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crystal Palace U18 1+ goals

88%

Crystal Palace U18 2+ goals

62%

Crystal Palace U18 3+ goals

34%

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals

81%

Aston Villa U18 2+ goals

50%

Aston Villa U18 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace U18 (draw refunded)

60%

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace U18 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa U18 away — creates 2.34, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace U18 attack 1.80 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.09

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.34 + Crystal Palace U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crystal Palace U18 scores more

48%

level

21%

Aston Villa U18 scores more

31%

Crystal Palace U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crystal Palace U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Williams↳ J. Drakes-Thomas

36'

47'

47'

56'

56'

J. Kyremeh↳ J. Drakes-Thomas

63'

V. Hayward← A. Lynskey

63'

M. Lott← M. Meade

68'

M. Lott↳ J. McGrath

77'

D. Martin← J. Kyremeh

78'

T. Carroll

85'

D. Martin↳ J. Drakes-Thomas

87'

90'

90+1'

90+1'

Crystal

Aston

1

Proctor

7

▼

4

3

2

5

8

6

11

A

McGrath

10

▼

Lynskey

9

▼

1

2

5

7

A

Drakes-Th

3

Whyte

10

⚽

Williams

8

Adams-Col

11

⚽

▼

Kyremeh

4

Danaher

6

A

Fasida

9

⚽

▼

Casey

Manager: R. Quinn

77'▲D. Martin←▼J. Kyremeh

87'▲D. Montjen←▼B. Casey

Crystal Palace U18 substitutes

14Martin15Montjen12Muwana13Mason16Okoli

Manager: J. Shan

56'▲J. Wilson←▼J. Green

63'▲V. Hayward←▼A. Lynskey

63'▲M. Lott←▼M. Meade

Aston Villa U18 substitutes

12Wilson15Hayward16Lott13Asemota14Moreland