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Aston Villa U18 vs Crystal Palace U18 — League #696 2026

Aston Villa U18
Aston Villa U18
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Crystal Palace U18
Crystal Palace U18
J. Wilson 75'
F. Boyd 41'
M. Meade 27'
J. Judd 58'
9/27/2025League #696League #696 · South - 6Bodymoor Heath Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aston Villa U1832%
×Draw20%
Crystal Palace U1847%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa U18
1.82
Crystal Palace U18
2.21

Crystal Palace U18 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aston Villa U18
2.04
Crystal Palace U18
2.40

allows per match

Aston Villa U18
2.02
Crystal Palace U18
1.60

finishing

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par
Crystal Palace U18+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa U18 ↓

Crystal Palace U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Aston Villa U18 or draw
53%
Aston Villa U18 or Crystal Palace U18
80%
Draw or Crystal Palace U18
68%

Winning margin

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+
16%
Crystal Palace U18 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals
84%
Aston Villa U18 2+ goals
54%
Aston Villa U18 3+ goals
27%
Crystal Palace U18 1+ goals
89%
Crystal Palace U18 2+ goals
65%
Crystal Palace U18 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)
41%
Crystal Palace U18 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa U18 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 2.02 · 54 matches

Crystal Palace U18 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.04 + Crystal Palace U18 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Crystal Palace U18 attack 2.40 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aston Villa U18 scores more
32%
level
20%
Crystal Palace U18 scores more
47%

Crystal Palace U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crystal Palace U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Meade↳ J. McGrath
41'
F. Boyd↳ M. Meade
58'
J. Judd↳ C. Okoli
75'
J. Wilson↳ M. Jenner
Aston
Crystal
Richard Beale
Manager: Richard Beale
Javier Alonso Delgado
Manager: Javier Alonso Delgado

League #696: Aston Villa U18 3–1 Crystal Palace U18

Aston Villa U18 beat Crystal Palace U18 3-1 in League #696 on September 27, 2025.

Goals: M. Meade (27'), F. Boyd (41'), J. Judd (58'), J. Wilson (75').

The match was played at Bodymoor Heath Training Ground in Bodymoor Heath, Warwickshire.