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Cruzeiro vs Coritiba — Serie A 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coritiba
Coritiba
7/16/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 15Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cruzeiro47%
×Draw27%
Coritiba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.42
Coritiba
0.97

Cruzeiro creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.27
Coritiba
1.11

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.82
Coritiba
1.57

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more
Coritiba+0.25scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Coritiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
74%
Cruzeiro or Coritiba
73%
Draw or Coritiba
53%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
23%
Coritiba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
76%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
41%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
17%
Coritiba 1+ goals
62%
Coritiba 2+ goals
25%
Coritiba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
65%
Coritiba (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 21 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.27 + Coritiba defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Coritiba attack 1.11 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
47%
level
27%
Coritiba scores more
26%

Cruzeiro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cruzeiro 0–0 Coritiba

Cruzeiro and Coritiba drew 0-0 in Serie A on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.