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Coritiba vs Cruzeiro — Serie A 2026

Coritiba
Coritiba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
11/11/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 34Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Coritiba31%
×Draw29%
Cruzeiro40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coritiba
1.02
Cruzeiro
1.19

Cruzeiro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Coritiba
0.87
Cruzeiro
0.90

allows per match

Coritiba
1.47
Cruzeiro
1.17

finishing

Coritiba+0.23scores more
Cruzeiro-0.09on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw
60%
Coritiba or Cruzeiro
71%
Draw or Cruzeiro
69%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+
12%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals
64%
Coritiba 2+ goals
27%
Coritiba 3+ goals
8%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
70%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
33%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)
44%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 10 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 0.87 + Cruzeiro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Coritiba defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coritiba scores more
31%
level
29%
Cruzeiro scores more
40%

Cruzeiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Coritiba 1–0 Cruzeiro

Coritiba beat Cruzeiro 1-0 in Serie A on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva in Curitiba, Paraná.