Cruzeiro 2–1 Boca Juniors: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro

Pens

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Boca Juniors

Á. Barreal 120+9' (pen)

J. Dinenno 120+7' (pen)

Marlon 120+5' (pen)

Matheus Henrique 120+3' (pen), 9'

William 120+1' (pen)

Walace 21'

N. Figal 120+8' (pen)

L. Blanco 120+6' (pen)

C. Lema 120+4' (pen)

M. Rojo 120+2' (pen)

M. Giménez 45+3'

8/23/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cruzeiro42%

×Draw28%

Boca Juniors30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Cruzeiro

1.25

Boca Juniors

1.00

Cruzeiro creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.25

Boca Juniors

1.00

allows per match

Cruzeiro

1.00

Boca Juniors

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Boca Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

70%

Cruzeiro or Boca Juniors

72%

Draw or Boca Juniors

58%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

19%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

71%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

36%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

13%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

63%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

26%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

59%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.25 + Boca Juniors defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Boca Juniors attack 1.00 + Cruzeiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

42%

level

28%

Boca Juniors scores more

30%

Cruzeiro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Lema

Boca Juniors · D

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Lucas Villalba

1'

Luis Advíncula

5'

N. Figal← A. Martegani

9'

21'

43'

45+3'

48'

52'

54'

56'

Á. Barreal← L. Romero

60'

Matheus Pereira

63'

Matheus Henrique

64'

Arthur Gomes← L. Díaz

65'

Marlon← Kaiki

68'

G. Medel← K. Zenón

79'

Kaio Jorge← Walace

82'

Milton Giménez

85'

T. Belmonte← G. Fernández

85'

M. Saracchi← M. Giménez

89'

Marcos Rojo

90+5'

Gary Medel

120+1'

WilliamPenalty

120+2'

M. RojoPenalty

120+3'

Matheus HenriquePenalty

120+4'

C. LemaPenalty

120+5'

MarlonPenalty

120+6'

L. BlancoPenalty

120+7'

J. DinennoPenalty

120+8'

N. FigalPenalty

120+9'

Á. BarrealPenalty

120+10'

M. MerentielMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroBoca

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots10

5Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots10

7On Target2

4Off Target7

2Blocked1

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

438Total Passes232

372Accurate Passes180

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0