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Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniorsadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
E. Cavani 65'
8/16/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boca Juniors52%
×Draw31%
Cruzeiro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.20
Cruzeiro
0.55

Boca Juniors creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.60
Cruzeiro
0.90

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.20
Cruzeiro
0.80

finishing

Boca Juniors+0.00on par
Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
83%
Boca Juniors or Cruzeiro
69%
Draw or Cruzeiro
48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
24%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
70%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
34%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
12%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
42%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
11%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
75%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.60 + Cruzeiro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Boca Juniors defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
52%
level
31%
Cruzeiro scores more
17%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
K. ZenónBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
Pol Fernández
23'
Matheus Pereira
29'
Walace
40'
Lucas Romero
42'
Lautaro Díaz
46'
A. Martegani← J. Saralegui
52'
Arthur Gomes
65'
E. Cavani↳ K. Zenón
67'
Lucas Silva← Á. Barreal
67'
Kaio Jorge← Arthur Gomes
76'
T. Belmonte← G. Fernández
76'
Matheus Henrique← L. Romero
87'
Kaiki← L. Díaz
88'
E. Zeballos← M. Merentiel
90'
Exequiel Zeballos
90+3'
M. Giménez← E. Cavani

Possession

52%Boca

Shots

11Boca

Pass accuracy

50%Boca

Statistics

BocaCruzeiro
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots4
7Corners0
16Fouls20
Shots
11Total Shots4
3On Target1
3Off Target2
5Blocked1
9Inside Box3
2Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
394Total Passes388
298Accurate Passes299
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls20
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides5

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Boca Juniors 1–0 Cruzeiro

Boca Juniors beat Cruzeiro 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 16, 2024.

Goals: E. Cavani (65').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.