Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1–2 Coruripe: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Coruripe

2/4/2023

League #77 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca45%

×Draw22%

Coruripe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruzeiro ArapiracaExpected goals in this matchCoruripe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.60

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

1.88

Coruripe

1.60

Cruzeiro Arapiraca creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

1.00

Coruripe

1.00

allows per match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

2.20

Coruripe

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par

Coruripe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro Arapiraca ↓

Coruripe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Cruzeiro Arapiraca or draw

67%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca or Coruripe

78%

Draw or Coruripe

55%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+

24%

Coruripe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals

85%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals

56%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals

29%

Coruripe 1+ goals

80%

Coruripe 2+ goals

47%

Coruripe 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)

57%

Coruripe (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro Arapiraca at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Coruripe away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 1.00 + Coruripe defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Coruripe attack 1.00 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more

45%

level

22%

Coruripe scores more

33%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cruzeiro Arapiraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff