Coruripe 1–0 Cruzeiro Arapiraca: Result & Stats

Coruripe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

3/2/2024

League #77 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Gérson do Amaral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coruripe51%

×Draw32%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruripeExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro Arapiraca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.54

Coruripe

1.15

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

0.54

Coruripe creates 113% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

0.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Coruripe

1.00

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

0.40

allows per match

Coruripe

0.67

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruripe+0.00on par

Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruripe ↓

Cruzeiro Arapiraca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Coruripe or draw

83%

Coruripe or Cruzeiro Arapiraca

68%

Draw or Cruzeiro Arapiraca

49%

Winning margin

Coruripe wins by 2+

22%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Coruripe 1+ goals

68%

Coruripe 2+ goals

32%

Coruripe 3+ goals

11%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals

42%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals

10%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Coruripe (draw refunded)

75%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruripe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruripe attack 1.00 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 0.40 + Coruripe defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coruripe scores more

51%

level

32%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more

17%

Coruripe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coruripe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff