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Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs ASA — Serie D 2026

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ASA
ASA
7/9/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca33%
×Draw32%
ASA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.92
ASA
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.71
ASA
0.95

allows per match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca
1.00
ASA
1.14

finishing

Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro Arapiraca ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cruzeiro Arapiraca or draw
65%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca or ASA
68%
Draw or ASA
67%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+
12%
ASA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals
60%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals
23%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals
7%
ASA 1+ goals
62%
ASA 2+ goals
25%
ASA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)
48%
ASA (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro Arapiraca at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

ASA away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 0.71 + ASA defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

ASA attack 0.95 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more
33%
level
32%
ASA scores more
35%

ASA at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs ASA

ASA beat Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2-0 in Serie D on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca in Arapiraca, Alagoas.