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ASA vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca — Serie D 2026

ASA
ASA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
5/20/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ASA55%
×Draw24%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
1.76
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
1.01

ASA creates 74% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 7 away

creates per match

ASA
1.38
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
1.14

allows per match

ASA
0.89
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2.14

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Cruzeiro Arapiraca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ASA or draw
78%
ASA or Cruzeiro Arapiraca
76%
Draw or Cruzeiro Arapiraca
45%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
31%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
83%
ASA 2+ goals
52%
ASA 3+ goals
26%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals
64%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals
27%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
72%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.38 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 1.14 + ASA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ASA scores more
55%
level
24%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more
22%

ASA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASA vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca

Cruzeiro Arapiraca beat ASA 2-0 in Serie D on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca in Arapiraca, Alagoas.