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Cruz Azul vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
C. Ebere 45'
Kenedy 58', 5'
4/5/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cruz Azul49%
×Draw24%
CF Pachuca26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.67
CF Pachuca
1.15

Cruz Azul creates 45% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.87
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

Cruz Azul
0.96
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
74%
Cruz Azul or CF Pachuca
76%
Draw or CF Pachuca
51%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
26%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
81%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
50%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
23%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
68%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
32%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
65%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.87 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Cruz Azul defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
49%
level
24%
CF Pachuca scores more
26%

Cruz Azul at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
KenedyCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
8.6

Match Events

5'
Kenedy
23'
Gonzalo Piovi
32'
O. Campos← J. Rodarte
45'
C. Ebere
58'
Kenedy↳ O. Idrissi
61'
G. Fernandez← L. Romero
69'
A. Dominguez← Kenedy
69'
E. Valencia← S. Rondon
69'
S. Rodriguez← E. Montiel
76'
L. Quinones← O. Idrissi
80'
A. Morales← C. Rodriguez
80'
E. Lira← J. Marquez
80'
A. Montano← C. Ebere
83'
Christian RiveraCard upgrade
84'
Christian Rivera
87'
P. Pedraza← V. Guzman
90'
Pedro Pedraza
90'
Sergio Rodríguez

Possession

63%Cruz

Shots

20Cruz

Pass accuracy

53%Cruz

Statistics

CruzCF
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots12
0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.06
8Corners4
6Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots12
5On Target4
13Off Target6
2Blocked2
8Inside Box5
12Outside Box7
Passing
63%Possession37%
452Total Passes272
375Accurate Passes204
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.03Goals Prevented0.03
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Cruz Azul vs CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat Cruz Azul 2-1 in Liga MX on April 5, 2026.

Goals: Kenedy (5', 58'), C. Ebere (45').

Cruz Azul controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtemoc in Puebla.