CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
CF Pachuca38%
Cruz Azul36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 36 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CF Pachuca ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches
Cruz Azul away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CF Pachuca attack 1.56 + Cruz Azul defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36
Cruz Azul attack 1.54 + CF Pachuca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
CF Pachuca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Guadalajara ChivasCruz AzulCF Pachuca
Toluca
Atlas
Tigres UANL
Club America
Club Tijuana
Leon
Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
Monterrey
Atletico San Luis
Necaxa
Mazatlán
Puebla
Santos LagunaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
CF Pachuca host Cruz Azul on Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Liga MX: CF Pachuca 0–1 Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul beat CF Pachuca 1-0 in Liga MX on September 13, 2025.
Goals: G. Fernandez (65' pen).
CF Pachuca controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.