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Cruz Azul vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2018

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
7/10/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cruz Azul42%
×Draw26%
CF Pachuca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.41
CF Pachuca
1.19

Cruz Azul creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.61
CF Pachuca
1.00

allows per match

Cruz Azul
1.38
CF Pachuca
1.20

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.01on par
CF Pachuca+0.50scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
68%
Cruz Azul or CF Pachuca
74%
Draw or CF Pachuca
58%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
20%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
76%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
41%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
17%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
70%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
33%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
57%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.61 + CF Pachuca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

CF Pachuca attack 1.00 + Cruz Azul defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
42%
level
26%
CF Pachuca scores more
32%

Cruz Azul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Cruz Azul 1–2 CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat Cruz Azul 2-1 in Liga MX on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Azteca in D.F..