Cruz Azul vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Cruz Azul49%
Atlas26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cruz Azul creates 47% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cruz Azul ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 14 matches
Atlas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cruz Azul attack 1.50 + Atlas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56
Atlas attack 1.00 + Cruz Azul defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Cruz Azul at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Leon
Tigres UANL
MonterreyCruz Azul
Club America
Necaxa
Pachuca
Club Tijuana
Toluca
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Lobos BuapAtlas
Guadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Monarcas
Club Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cruz Azul host Atlas on Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 03:15. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Liga MX: Cruz Azul 1–0 Atlas
Cruz Azul beat Atlas 1-0 in Liga MX on May 10, 2026.
Goals: J. Paradela (32').
Atlas controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Azteca in Puebla.