Atlas 3–3 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Atlas

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Cruz Azul

Matheus Doria 60'

D. Gonzalez 31'

E. Aguirre 17'

A. Sepulveda 90', 58', 55' (pen)

7/20/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Atlas26%

×Draw25%

Cruz Azul49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.58

Atlas

1.08

Cruz Azul

1.58

Cruz Azul creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.06

creates per match

1.73

1.44

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Atlas

1.06

Cruz Azul

1.73

allows per match

Atlas

1.44

Cruz Azul

1.10

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Atlas+0.24scores more

Cruz Azul+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

51%

Atlas or Cruz Azul

75%

Draw or Cruz Azul

74%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

10%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

66%

Atlas 2+ goals

29%

Atlas 3+ goals

10%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

79%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

47%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

35%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 10 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.06 + Cruz Azul defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cruz Azul attack 1.73 + Atlas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlas scores more

26%

level

25%

Cruz Azul scores more

49%

Cruz Azul at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Sepulveda

Cruz Azul · F

9.2

Match Events

17'

E. Aguirre

22'

Erik Lira

31'

D. Gonzalez↳ E. Aguirre

44'

Antonio Sánchez

53'

Mateusz BoguszPenalty confirmed

55'

A. SepulvedaPenalty

58'

A. Sepulveda↳ M. Bogusz

60'

A. Gonzalez← S. Hernandez

60'

Matheus Doria↳ A. Rocha

71'

O. Campos← C. Rotondi

71'

L. Faravelli← L. Romero

74'

C. Orrantia← Gustavo Ferrareis

74'

G. del Prete← D. Gonzalez

78'

J. Marquez← E. Lira

82'

José Paradela

86'

J. Serrato← E. Aguirre

86'

M. Coccaro← U. Djurdjevic

86'

A. Morales← M. Bogusz

86'

M. Levy← J. Sanchez

90+4'

Aldo Rocha

90'

A. Sepulveda↳ J. Paradela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlasCruz

Overview

29%Possession71%

10Total Shots29

1.00Expected Goals (xG)2.08

4Corners11

10Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots29

4On Target5

3Off Target12

3Blocked12

8Inside Box14

2Outside Box15

Passing

29%Possession71%

205Total Passes486

132Accurate Passes418

64%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0