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Crusaders W vs Derry City W — Premiership Women 2026

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Derry City W
Derry City W
C. Sheerin 59'
R. Mcintyre 45', 3'
10/12/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Relegation Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Crusaders W36%
×Draw19%
Derry City W45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
2.25
Derry City W
2.52

Derry City W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
1.69
Derry City W
1.59

allows per match

Crusaders W
3.44
Derry City W
2.82

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Derry City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
55%
Crusaders W or Derry City W
81%
Draw or Derry City W
64%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
20%
Derry City W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
89%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
65%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
39%
Derry City W 1+ goals
92%
Derry City W 2+ goals
71%
Derry City W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
44%
Derry City W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.69 + Derry City W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.25

Derry City W attack 1.59 + Crusaders W defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crusaders W scores more
36%
level
19%
Derry City W scores more
45%

Derry City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
R. Mcintyre
45'
R. Mcintyre
59'
C. Sheerin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Crusaders W 0–3 Derry City W

Derry City W beat Crusaders W 3-0 in Premiership Women on October 12, 2025.

Goals: R. Mcintyre (3', 45'), C. Sheerin (59').