Crusaders W 4–2 Derry City W: Result & Stats

Crusaders W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Derry City W

S. Gargan 36'

R. Mann 34', 11'

J. Rea 14'

C. Crumlish-Hawes 90'

Unknown 45'

5/9/2025

Premiership Women · Round 1Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Crusaders W38%

×Draw19%

Derry City W42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders WExpected goals in this matchDerry City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

2.43

Crusaders W

2.32

Derry City W

2.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.69

creates per match

1.42

3.44

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Crusaders W

1.69

Derry City W

1.42

allows per match

Crusaders W

3.44

Derry City W

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par

Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Derry City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw

58%

Crusaders W or Derry City W

81%

Draw or Derry City W

62%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+

22%

Derry City W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals

90%

Crusaders W 2+ goals

67%

Crusaders W 3+ goals

40%

Derry City W 1+ goals

91%

Derry City W 2+ goals

69%

Derry City W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)

48%

Derry City W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.69 + Derry City W defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.32

Derry City W attack 1.42 + Crusaders W defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crusaders W scores more

38%

level

19%

Derry City W scores more

42%

Derry City W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

14'

34'

36'

45'

90'

C. Crumlish-Hawes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff