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Crucero Del Norte vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

Crucero Del Norte
Crucero Del Norte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
9/18/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 30Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crucero Del Norte49%
×Draw29%
Atletico Parana23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crucero Del Norte
1.31
Atletico Parana
0.79

Crucero Del Norte creates 66% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 28 away

creates per match

Crucero Del Norte
1.00
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

Crucero Del Norte
0.89
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

Crucero Del Norte+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crucero Del Norte ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Crucero Del Norte or draw
77%
Crucero Del Norte or Atletico Parana
71%
Draw or Atletico Parana
51%

Winning margin

Crucero Del Norte wins by 2+
23%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Crucero Del Norte 1+ goals
73%
Crucero Del Norte 2+ goals
38%
Crucero Del Norte 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
55%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
19%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Crucero Del Norte (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crucero Del Norte at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crucero Del Norte attack 1.00 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Crucero Del Norte defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crucero Del Norte scores more
49%
level
29%
Atletico Parana scores more
23%

Crucero Del Norte at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crucero Del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crucero Del Norte vs Atletico Parana

Crucero Del Norte beat Atletico Parana 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Comandante Andrés Guacurarí in Gran Posadas, Provincia de Misiones.