Atletico Parana 4–0 Crucero Del Norte

Atletico Parana

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crucero Del Norte

6/12/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 13Estadio Pedro Mutio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana45%

×Draw28%

Crucero Del Norte27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaExpected goals in this matchCrucero Del Norte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

Atletico Parana

1.34

Crucero Del Norte

0.97

Atletico Parana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 94 away

1.00

creates per match

0.63

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Atletico Parana

1.00

Crucero Del Norte

0.63

allows per match

Atletico Parana

1.31

Crucero Del Norte

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Crucero Del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Crucero Del Norte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw

73%

Atletico Parana or Crucero Del Norte

72%

Draw or Crucero Del Norte

55%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+

21%

Crucero Del Norte wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Parana 2+ goals

39%

Atletico Parana 3+ goals

15%

Crucero Del Norte 1+ goals

62%

Crucero Del Norte 2+ goals

25%

Crucero Del Norte 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)

63%

Crucero Del Norte (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Crucero Del Norte away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Crucero Del Norte defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Crucero Del Norte attack 0.63 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Parana scores more

45%

level

28%

Crucero Del Norte scores more

27%

Atletico Parana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff