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Crotone vs Carpi — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carpi
Carpi
11/4/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 11Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Crotone53%
×Draw24%
Carpi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.75
Carpi
1.06

Crotone creates 65% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.43
Carpi
1.11

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Carpi
2.06

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Carpi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Carpi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
77%
Crotone or Carpi
76%
Draw or Carpi
47%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
30%
Carpi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
83%
Crotone 2+ goals
52%
Crotone 3+ goals
25%
Carpi 1+ goals
65%
Carpi 2+ goals
29%
Carpi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
70%
Carpi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Carpi away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.43 + Carpi defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Carpi attack 1.11 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Crotone scores more
53%
level
24%
Carpi scores more
23%

Crotone at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crotone 1 – 1 Carpi

Crotone and Carpi drew 1-1 in Serie B on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.