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Carpi vs Crotone — Serie B 2018

Carpi
Carpi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Crotone
Crotone
3/30/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 30Stadio Sandro Cabassi (Carpi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Carpi35%
×Draw26%
Crotone39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carpi
1.30
Crotone
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 56 away

creates per match

Carpi
1.06
Crotone
1.14

allows per match

Carpi
1.67
Crotone
1.54

finishing

Carpi+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carpi ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Carpi or draw
61%
Carpi or Crotone
74%
Draw or Crotone
65%

Winning margin

Carpi wins by 2+
15%
Crotone wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Carpi 1+ goals
73%
Carpi 2+ goals
37%
Carpi 3+ goals
14%
Crotone 1+ goals
75%
Crotone 2+ goals
41%
Crotone 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carpi (draw refunded)
47%
Crotone (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carpi at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carpi attack 1.06 + Crotone defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Crotone attack 1.14 + Carpi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carpi scores more
35%
level
26%
Crotone scores more
39%

Crotone at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carpi vs Crotone

Crotone beat Carpi 2-1 in Serie B on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Sandro Cabassi (Carpi).