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Crotone vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
M. Tramoni 35' (pen)
2/16/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Crotone43%
×Draw27%
Brescia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.38
Brescia
1.09

Crotone creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 118 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.48
Brescia
1.16

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
70%
Crotone or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
57%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
21%
Brescia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
75%
Crotone 2+ goals
40%
Crotone 3+ goals
16%
Brescia 1+ goals
66%
Brescia 2+ goals
30%
Brescia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
59%
Brescia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.48 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Brescia attack 1.16 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crotone scores more
43%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
30%

Crotone at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
M. TramoniBresciaBrescia · M
7.5

Match Events

5'
Andrea Cistana
20'
Matthieu Huard
35'
M. TramoniPenalty
46'
S. Mulattieri← A. Kargbo
46'
M. Sala← M. Nicoletti
46'
M. Pajač← M. Huard
56'
L. Calapai← V. Mogoș
57'
M. Marras← G. Borello
67'
R. Bajić← S. Moreo
74'
A. Papetti← M. Tramoni
74'
R. Palacio← M. Léris
77'
S. Sabelli← F. Karačić
83'
B. Adekanye← I. Nedelcearu

Possession

49%Crotone

Shots

4Crotone

Pass accuracy

49%Crotone

Statistics

CrotoneBrescia
Overview
49%Possession51%
4Total Shots18
2Corners7
10Fouls8
Shots
4Total Shots18
1On Target5
3Off Target9
0Blocked4
2Inside Box12
2Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
370Total Passes370
251Accurate Passes263
68%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Serie B: Crotone 0–1 Brescia

Brescia beat Crotone 1-0 in Serie B on February 16, 2022.

Goals: M. Tramoni (35' pen).

Brescia controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.