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Crotone vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
A. Budimir 90+6' (pen), 56'
J. Dall'Oglio 71'
A. Donnarumma 11' (pen)
9/28/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Crotone44%
×Draw27%
Brescia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.38
Brescia
1.08

Crotone creates 28% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 117 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.48
Brescia
1.15

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
71%
Crotone or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
56%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
21%
Brescia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
75%
Crotone 2+ goals
40%
Crotone 3+ goals
16%
Brescia 1+ goals
66%
Brescia 2+ goals
29%
Brescia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
60%
Brescia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.48 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Brescia attack 1.15 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crotone scores more
44%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
29%

Crotone at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Vladimir Golemić
11'
A. DonnarummaPenalty
37'
Alessandro Martinelli
55'
D. Faraoni← S. Molina
56'
A. Budimir↳ M. Firenze
61'
L. Morosini← A. Donnarumma
66'
N. Špalek← A. Martinelli
71'
J. Dall'Oglio↳ S. Tonali
73'
Nikolas Špalek
75'
M. Rohdén← A. Stoian
75'
A. Cistana← S. Sabelli
77'
S. Nwankwo← A. Nalini
85'
Davide Faraoni
90+6'
A. BudimirPenalty

Possession

53%Crotone

Shots

11Crotone

Statistics

CrotoneBrescia
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots15
6Corners3
10Fouls21
Shots
11Total Shots15
6On Target4
5Off Target11
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls21
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Serie B: Crotone 2–2 Brescia

Crotone and Brescia drew 2-2 in Serie B on September 28, 2018.

Goals: A. Donnarumma (11' pen), A. Budimir (56', 90+6' pen), J. Dall'Oglio (71').

Crotone controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.