Crotone 0–2 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Crotone

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Benevento

G. Lapadula 53'

G. Letizia 37'

10/28/2021

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Crotone39%

×Draw28%

Benevento33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrotoneExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

Crotone

1.24

Benevento

1.13

Crotone creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 79 away

1.43

creates per match

1.24

1.02

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Crotone

1.43

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Crotone

1.02

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Crotone or draw

67%

Crotone or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

61%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+

17%

Benevento wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals

71%

Crotone 2+ goals

35%

Crotone 3+ goals

13%

Benevento 1+ goals

68%

Benevento 2+ goals

31%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)

54%

Benevento (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.43 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Benevento attack 1.24 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crotone scores more

39%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

33%

Crotone at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

G. Letizia

Benevento · D

8.7

Match Events

30'

P. Giannotti← V. Mogoș

37'

G. Letizia↳ G. Acampora

43'

Pasquale Giannotti

46'

G. Donsah← M. Vulić

46'

D. Vokić← E. Brignola

48'

M. Sala← N. Paz

53'

G. Lapadula↳ G. Letizia

55'

Gianluca LapadulaGoal cancelled

69'

Marco Sala

70'

E. Masciangelo← A. Tello

75'

Giacomo Calò

78'

M. Juwara← S. Molina

78'

A. Vogliacco← D. Foulon

78'

G. Di Serio← G. Acampora

83'

G. Moncini← G. Lapadula

88'

Pasquale Giannotti

88'

Pasquale Giannotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrotoneBenevento

Overview

51%Possession49%

5Total Shots13

6Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target5

2Off Target6

1Blocked2

2Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

401Total Passes387

304Accurate Passes295

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Crotone vs Benevento

Benevento beat Crotone 2-0 in Serie B on October 28, 2021.

Goals: G. Letizia (37'), G. Lapadula (53').

Crotone controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.

Crotone vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crotone vs Benevento