Benevento 1–1 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Benevento

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crotone

G. Lapadula 13'

S. Nwankwo 90+3'

5/16/2021

Serie A · Round 37Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benevento47%

×Draw22%

Crotone31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.60

Benevento

2.00

Crotone

1.60

Benevento creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.16

2.05

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Benevento

1.00

Crotone

1.16

allows per match

Benevento

2.05

Crotone

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

69%

Benevento or Crotone

78%

Draw or Crotone

53%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

27%

Crotone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

86%

Benevento 2+ goals

59%

Benevento 3+ goals

32%

Crotone 1+ goals

80%

Crotone 2+ goals

47%

Crotone 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

60%

Crotone (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.00 + Crotone defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Crotone attack 1.16 + Benevento defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benevento scores more

47%

level

22%

Crotone scores more

31%

Benevento at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Festa

Crotone · G

7.9

Match Events

13'

G. Lapadula↳ P. Hetemaj

15'

Luca Marrone

20'

R. Improta← A. Ioniţă

24'

Vladimir Golemić

36'

A. Tuia← F. Depaoli

46'

B. Dabo← G. Caprari

46'

Pedro Pereira← L. Marrone

51'

Lisandro Magallán

62'

L. Rojas← N. Zanellato

66'

M. Vulić← Ahmed Benali

67'

J. Petriccione← L. Cigarini

80'

83'

84'

88'

90+3'

S. Nwankwo↳ Pedro Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoCrotone

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots5

8Corners4

12Fouls19

Shots

21Total Shots5

8On Target2

7Off Target2

6Blocked1

12Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

452Total Passes376

386Accurate Passes316

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3