Croatia U19 2–2 Portugal U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Portugal U19

P. Covic 79', 65'

G. Silva 80'

F. Silva 49'

10/11/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croatia U1947%

×Draw20%

Portugal U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchPortugal U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.88

Croatia U19

2.25

Portugal U19

1.88

Croatia U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

3.00

0.75

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Croatia U19

1.50

Portugal U19

3.00

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.75

Portugal U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Portugal U19 →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

67%

Croatia U19 or Portugal U19

80%

Draw or Portugal U19

53%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

27%

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

89%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

65%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

39%

Portugal U19 1+ goals

85%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

56%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Portugal U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 1.50 + Portugal U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Portugal U19 attack 3.00 + Croatia U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

47%

level

20%

Portugal U19 scores more

33%

Croatia U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

65'

79'

80'

Croatia

Portugal

Manager: S. Oreščanin

Manager: Filipe Ramos