Croatia U19 vs Portugal U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Croatia U1952%
Portugal U1922%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Croatia U19 creates 70% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Croatia U19 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches
Portugal U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Portugal U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.55
Portugal U19 attack 0.86 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Croatia U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
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Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Croatia U19 host Portugal U19 on Tuesday, 28 March 2023 at 16:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 0–3 Portugal U19
Portugal U19 beat Croatia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2023.
Goals: Gustavo Sá (15'), Diego Moreira (54'), Hugo Félix (76').
The match was played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos.