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Croatia U19 vs Germany U19 — Friendlies 2026

Croatia U19
Croatia U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Germany U19
Germany U19
9/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Croatia U1940%
×Draw26%
Germany U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U19
1.38
Germany U19
1.25

Croatia U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Croatia U19
1.50
Germany U19
1.75

allows per match

Croatia U19
0.75
Germany U19
1.25

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par
Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Germany U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw
66%
Croatia U19 or Germany U19
74%
Draw or Germany U19
60%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+
19%
Germany U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals
75%
Croatia U19 2+ goals
40%
Croatia U19 3+ goals
16%
Germany U19 1+ goals
71%
Germany U19 2+ goals
36%
Germany U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Germany U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 1.50 + Germany U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Germany U19 attack 1.75 + Croatia U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Croatia U19 scores more
40%
level
26%
Germany U19 scores more
34%

Croatia U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Germany U19

Croatia U19 beat Germany U19 1-0 in Friendlies on September 9, 2025.