Croatia U19 2–1 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Germany U19

3/20/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Croatia U1941%

×Draw23%

Germany U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.61

Croatia U19

1.71

Germany U19

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

2.27

0.95

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

64%

Croatia U19 or Germany U19

77%

Draw or Germany U19

59%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

21%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

82%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

51%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

24%

Germany U19 1+ goals

80%

Germany U19 2+ goals

48%

Germany U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

41%

level

23%

Germany U19 scores more

36%

Croatia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff