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Croatia U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Croatia U19
Croatia U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Armenia U19
Armenia U19
11/13/2021UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Croatia U1968%
×Draw18%
Armenia U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U19
2.34
Armenia U19
0.97

Croatia U19 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Croatia U19
2.25
Armenia U19
1.00

allows per match

Croatia U19
0.95
Armenia U19
2.43

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par
Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw
86%
Croatia U19 or Armenia U19
82%
Draw or Armenia U19
32%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+
45%
Armenia U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals
90%
Croatia U19 2+ goals
67%
Croatia U19 3+ goals
41%
Armenia U19 1+ goals
62%
Armenia U19 2+ goals
25%
Armenia U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Armenia U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.34

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Croatia U19 scores more
68%
level
18%
Armenia U19 scores more
14%

Croatia U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Armenia U19

Croatia U19 beat Armenia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.