Armenia U19 1–2 Croatia U19: Result & Stats

Armenia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Croatia U19

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadion Valbruna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Armenia U1919%

×Draw20%

Croatia U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armenia U19Expected goals in this matchCroatia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.12

Armenia U19

1.08

Croatia U19

2.12

Croatia U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

0.86

creates per match

1.23

3.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Armenia U19

0.86

Croatia U19

1.23

allows per match

Armenia U19

3.00

Croatia U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia U19 ↓

Croatia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Armenia U19 or draw

39%

Armenia U19 or Croatia U19

80%

Draw or Croatia U19

81%

Winning margin

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

7%

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Armenia U19 1+ goals

66%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

29%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

10%

Croatia U19 1+ goals

88%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

62%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

Croatia U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia U19 attack 0.86 + Croatia U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Croatia U19 attack 1.23 + Armenia U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Armenia U19 scores more

19%

level

20%

Croatia U19 scores more

61%

Croatia U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff